Saturday December 27th, 2003
12:10am
Happy Holidays
I'm wishing everyone a belated Happy Holidays. I've been all over the state the last couple days and as you read this now, I'm either on my way to or I'm in Dallas to spend some time with Jennifer's family. I hope that everyone has traveled safely and that everyone got what they put on their wish list. My big gift this year was pretty exciting, because I didn't know I was getting it. I got a stadium seat straight out of Wrigley Field! It was taken out of the stadium in November 1999 when they remodeled the stadium behind the home plate area. My seat was Aisle 125 Row 7 Seat 105, and used to be just behind the visitor's on-deck circle on the 1st base side of home plate.
Over Paid?
I'm a pretty conservative person, so I've always been a bit weary of clubs giving players long-term, big money contracts. I think that when a team does this, they are not only taking a huge risk, but they are making a decision to reward a player for his past performances and not what he will actually be worth at a given time in the future. I'll use Jeff Bagwell of the Astros as an example. After the 2000 season, at the age of 32, the Houston Astros signed him to a 5 year/$85M contract. I know that Jeff is a class act and one of the best 1Bman in the game over his career, but I thought that Bags was past his "prime". To give him a contract for premium money through age 37 was a decision by the Astros that made. Could Bagwell reasonably produce at the All-Star levels that he had been throughout his career from ages 33-37? We see now that he has not been able to. Sure you can argue that an arm injury has hurt his numbers, but isn't that something that comes with being older? Here are the numbers he's produced under his current contract:
Year Age G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OPS GPA
2001 33 161 600 126 173 43 39 130 .288 .965 .321
2002 34 158 571 94 166 33 31 98 .291 .919 .310
2003 35 160 601 109 168 28 39 100 .278 .897 .299
I don't think those are bad numbers by any means, but the days of .310 BA, 43 HRs, 155 Runs, and 135 RBI seem more distant than they did in 2001. This off-season, the Astros brass claim that they have too much money tied up in long term contracts and have little financial flexibility which led to the trade of Billy Wagner in order to free up money for Andy Pettitte. Measure the worth of Bagwell as you like.....
The reason I bring up paying players for past performances is because of Jason Giambi. I mentioned Giambi earlier this year when I noticed that he had more HRs on the road than he did at home, which really surprises me because he plays his home games in Yankee Stadium (which has had a 106 Park Index in HRs for left-handed hitters over the last 2 years). Here are Jason's numbers from his days with Oakland:
Year Age G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OPS GPA
1995 24 54 176 27 45 7 6 25 .256 .762 .255
1996 25 140 536 84 156 40 20 79 .291 .836 .280
1997 26 142 519 66 152 41 20 81 .293 .857 .287
1998 27 153 562 92 166 28 27 110 .295 .873 .295
1999 28 158 575 115 181 36 33 123 .315 .975 .328
2000 29 152 510 108 170 29 43 137 .333 1.123 .376
2001 30 154 520 109 178 47 38 120 .342 1.137 .380
What amazes me more than anything is that his BA, his OPS, his GPA improved each season he played. His HRs, & RBIs all increased each year with the exception of 2000. He did this in an extreme pitcher's park (The Collisium), which is even more amazing! After the 2001 season Jason sold his sole to the "Evil Empire" and signed a MONSTER long-term deal. For the next 7 years Jason would be performing to the tune of an average of $17.14M per season for a total of $120M. Over the last 2 seasons, Jason has not been able to continue the trend he had going in Oakland and his numbers dropped in just about all areas of his game.
Year Age G AB R H 2B HR RBI BA OPS GPA
2002 31 155 560 120 176 34 41 122 .314 1.033 .345
2003 32 156 535 97 134 25 41 107 .250 .939 .317
Still very good numbers, but definitely not what Steinbrenner was anticipating. I think that some of this has to do with his age and exiting his "prime". As Rob Neyer likes to say, a player's "prime" is usually ages 28-31. As you can see from above, Giambi is the perfect example of a player's "prime". Look at those 1999-2002 numbers (ages 28-31)....he's one of the best players in the majors. Every other year....solid player.
Something that I noticed that separates Giambi's 2003 season from the rest of his career is his lefty/righty splits.
Year v. LHP v. RHP
2003 .192/.718 .272/1.021
-- ------------------
2002 .219/.926 .320/1.074
2001 .333/1.028 .347/1.198
Car. .280/.854 .312/1.010
Quite a significant drop off there against those LHPs. I think that lefty/righty splits are pretty interesting and I think that you can tell somewhat that a player is on top of his game when he can not only even those stats out, but keep them at a high level.
Tuesday December 23rd, 2003
3:33am
The Biggest Trade Ever
I'm sure that everyone is getting somewhat sick of all this stuff. I'm not getting sick of it, I'm just antsy. I had this whole thing typed up last Wednesday night in anticipation of the trade and I haven't been able to use it, but since tomorrow is apparently the real "deadline" I'm posting it today because if it doesn't go down and I don't get to post then I wasted 2 hours of last Wednesday night researching and typing it up. So here are my thoughts on this trade IF it goes down today by 5pm. I want this to happen sooo badly that every time I come home I check espn.com to see if there are any changes. I also do it every time I re-enter my bedroom from the bathroom or the kitchen or the living room. As you can see, I want it to go down. Originally I was totally against the deal for Boston. I couldn't imagine why the BoSox would trade a super star LFer and a super star SS (who is listed on my "Favorite Players" list for a reason....because he's one of my favorite players in the game) for a Super-duper star SS and take on more salary. I had heard Nomar to LA for Odalis Perez, and I thought to myself, "Nomar is worth a lot more than a .500 pitcher with a 4.52 Era." Then I read it....Nomar for Magglio Ordonez. I heard the sound that you're supposed to hear when you die....that "Aaaaahhhhhh" with the glowing light and everything. Let's recap everything. A-Rod for Manny. Nomar for Mags. Let's look at the numbers (statistically, I honestly don't care about the $ because all I'm seeing is the results, but I suppose someone cares about the $):
Manny Ramirez-OF, Age: 31
| Year |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
RBI |
HR |
SO/BB |
BA |
OPS |
GPA |
| 2001 |
142 |
529 |
93 |
162 |
125 |
41 |
147/81 |
.306 |
1.014 |
.335 |
| 2002 |
120 |
436 |
84 |
152 |
107 |
33 |
85/73 |
.349 |
1.097 |
.364 |
| 2003 |
154 |
569 |
117 |
185 |
104 |
37 |
94/97 |
.325 |
1.014 |
.339 |
| Car(11 yr) |
1383 |
5004 |
959 |
1585 |
1140 |
347 |
1106/792 |
.317 |
1.011 |
.335 |
For
Alex Rodriguez-SS, Age: 28
| Year |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
RBI |
HR |
SO/BB |
BA |
OPS |
GPA |
| 2001 |
162 |
632 |
133 |
201 |
135 |
52 |
131/75 |
.318 |
1.021 |
.335 |
| 2002 |
162 |
624 |
125 |
187 |
142 |
57 |
122/87 |
.300 |
1.015 |
.332 |
| 2003 |
161 |
607 |
124 |
181 |
118 |
47 |
126/87 |
.298 |
.996 |
.328 |
| Car (10 yr) |
1275 |
4989 |
1009 |
1535 |
990 |
345 |
995/559 |
.308 |
.963 |
.317 |
Eerily similar numbers...Things of note:
Now....
Nomar Garciaparra-SS, Age: 30
| Year |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
RBI |
HR |
SO/BB |
BA |
OPS |
GPA |
| 2001 |
21 |
83 |
13 |
24 |
8 |
4 |
9/7 |
.289 |
.822 |
.276 |
| 2002 |
156 |
635 |
101 |
197 |
120 |
24 |
63/41 |
.310 |
.880 |
.290 |
| 2003 |
156 |
658 |
120 |
198 |
105 |
28 |
61/39 |
.301 |
.869 |
.286 |
| Car (8 yr) |
928 |
3812 |
685 |
1231 |
105 |
173 |
390/271 |
.323 |
.925 |
.305 |
For
Magglio Ordonez-OF, Age: 29
| Year |
G |
AB |
R |
H |
RBI |
HR |
SO/BB |
BA |
OPS |
GPA |
| 2001 |
160 |
593 |
97 |
181 |
113 |
31 |
70/70 |
.305 |
.915 |
.310 |
| 2002 |
153 |
590 |
116 |
189 |
135 |
38 |
77/53 |
.320 |
.978 |
.321 |
| 2003 |
160 |
606 |
95 |
192 |
135 |
29 |
73/57 |
.317 |
.926 |
.308 |
| Car (7 yr) |
949 |
3605 |
592 |
1108 |
666 |
178 |
409/317 |
.307 |
.892 |
.296 |
I didn't realize what a beast Magglio Ordonez has been, I knew he was really good but wow. 30+ HRs in last 5 years, and he was 1 RBI short of 100 RBI over the same time frame (99 RBI in '03). Along those same lines, I have been a bit blinded by my favoritism for Nomar to realize that his numbers have fallen off from early in his career. I still love the guy, but he's not quite the offensive force I thought he was. With Mags, I was surprised by his low BB totals, but his very low SO numbers are very nice for a slugger. Lets look at the Red Sox with Nomar and Manny combined vs. A-Rod and Mags combined (using last year’s stats):
| Combo |
AB |
R |
H |
RBI |
HR |
SO/BB |
BA |
| Manny/Nomar |
1227 |
237 |
383 |
222 |
65 |
155/136 |
.312 |
| A-Rod/Mags |
1213 |
219 |
373 |
253 |
76 |
199/144 |
.308 |
That is just the offensive side of it. If you look at the defensive side, A-Rod is quite easily a huge upgrade over Nomar. As you well know, it is imperative to have solid defense up the middle. The Red Sox are upgrading SS defensively with this trade and basically anything other than a tree stump is an upgrade over Todd Walker, who is out of the picture, so their already mega-improved pitching will be in even better shape. Overall, this trade is going to be good for the Red Sox, the Rangers, and baseball in general. Let's just hope everyone comes to terms....
Monday December 22nd, 2003
1:40am
Crazy Happening in Baseball
Reverse What I Said Last week I did a write up on how Mark Redman would help the A's already great pitching staff. Well, just forget it all. After trading for him, the A's decided to not offer him a contract for next season which means he is now an unrestricted free agent. I'm not sure what happened with this, but it certainly seems strange.
Now Reverse the Reverse Forget what I just said up above because Mark Redman decided he wanted to become an Oakland Athletic regardless of his release. So he signed with them as a free agent. Just plain craziness. He signed a 3-year deal (which will run through age 32) for about $4M/year.
Billy Beane is Busy
That is a tongue twister....but it's true. Asides from the Redman extravaganza, Beane has also traded for a catcher (Michael Barrett), traded that catcher (Michael Barrett), then traded for another catcher (Damien Miller), traded for a set-up man (Chris Hammond), signed a new closer (Arthur Rhodes), re-signed their back-up outfielder (Chris Singleton), their set-up man (Ricardo Rincon), and first baseman (Erubiel Durazo). All since December 16th. All a week's work for Beane.
Stupid Braves In what I would consider the dumbest move in baseball since the Pirates signed Derek Bell to his 2-year, $9.75M dollar deal (coming off a season where he hit .226), the Atlanta Braves signed my least favorite pitcher ever, Antonio "Blow every save I get, and look like an old fat man while I'm doing it" Alfonseca to a one-year deal. I never thought the day would come that the Braves could sink to this level of desperation. Here are his numbers over the last three years:
Year Team G W-L IP H R ER HR SO/BB SV BLSV ERA
2001 Fla 58 4-4 61.2 68 24 21 6 40/15 28 6 3.07
2002 ChiC 66 2-5 74.1 73 34 33 5 61/36 19 9 4.00
2003 ChiC 60 3-1 66.1 76 43 43 7 51/27 0 4 5.83
CarTot(7y) 400 23-30 446.1 489 216 204 42 310/174 121 23 4.11
How could the Braves think he was a better option than using John Smoltz for 3 innings? Or bringing back John Rocker, or even Mark Wholers????
Aggie Basketball
Since I'm on my quest for my free Aggie baseball jersey, I decided to hit up the lady/men basketball double-header today. I'm now up to 3 points, so I have 33 games remaining. Here's a quick recap of each game....
Lady Aggies 56 v. Marshall 61
This was a pretty strange game. We pretty much played catch up the entire 40 minutes, but it was exciting. At one point in the first half we were down by 13 and we came back to take a 3 point lead. We went to the half down by 1. I think that I counted 19 first half fouls by Marshall, which to me seems just insane. They finished with 32 fouls, and not one person fouled out (only 2 players on their entire squad had less than 2 fouls and those 2 girls played a combined total of 6 min.). On those 19 first half fouls, the Lady Ags only shot 16-27 from the line (59.3%). As I mentioned the other day, our team's season scoring leader hurt her self (a sprained ankle) and did not play yesterday. Our center, Lynn Classen, took charge leading all scorers with 16 points (to go with 5 rebounds, 3 blocks, and 4 steals). Marshall was quite an aggressive little team that was pretty fired up, and our fans gave'em an earful. The announced attendance was 1,402, which did actually look like a more accurate number than the other day. Overall, it was definitely better than last Wednesday's game, even though we lost.
Men Aggies 103 v. Grambling 101
This was a double over-time thriller! It was a great game....with one exception. Grambling was 2-6 coming into the game and in their 6 losses they lost by an AVERAGE of 31. Super-sophomore, #21 Antoine Wright, had a career high 32 points for the Aggies and hit the game winning free throws to go with his 5 boards and 5 assists. Andy Slocum had a quiet 16 points and 12 boards for yet another double-double. That was my first men's game I've been able to get out to this season. It was pretty slow during the middle of the game (end of 1st half and beginning of 2nd half), but things picked up there at the end. One of my pet peeves in basketball is missing free-throws. They're easy points, and someone as untalented as me could hit 75-80% if I practiced for about 2 weeks. There isn't anyone there to block your shot...in fact it's illegal for someone to even attempt to block it! We went to the line for 44 shots and we only hit 25 of them (56.8%)! That's sad considering Shaq is shooting 52.2% and we were only 2 misses away from that. Attendance was 3,829, and they all got their money's worth!
Sunday December 21st, 2003
2:47am
Gladiator
On Friday I wanted to go watch "Master and Commander" with Russell Crowe. Unfortunately, the movie theater here in College Station stopped showed it for the last time on Thursday. Instead, I saw "The Last Samurai" with Tom Cruise. I will admit, I was quite skeptical going into it, but it was a really good movie. It was one of those dramas that the critics seem to like (although I have no idea how it did with the critics). I really enjoyed it, maybe because it was a good v. evil story with a heroic yet sad ending; similar to my favorite movie of all time, "Gladiator". It got me aching to watch "Gladiator" again, so last night I did. Man that's a great movie! I think it has some of the best quotes, so I'll drop a few of them here for you to relive....
- "What we do in life...echoes in eternity"
- Quintus: "People should know when they're conquered."
Maximus: "Would you? Would I?" - "Strength and honor."
- "The frost....sometimes it makes the blade stick"
- "My name is Maximus Decimus Meridius, Commander of the Armies of the North, General of the Felix Legions, loyal servant to the true emperor, Marcus Aurelius. Father to a murdered son, husband to a murdered wife. And I will have my vengeance, in this life or the next."
- Maximus to Commodus: "The time for honoring yourself will soon come to an end....your highness"
Phew, that gets me all fired up....
I'll be Back
...with more good stuff on Monday. I've noticed that Sunday is my least visited day, so I'm not going to type a lot for few to read. You'll get it all on Monday!
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