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Baton Rouge Super Regional Preview

We're up against the Mighty LSU Tigers in a best-of-three winner moves on, loser goes home.

The #10 ranked Tigers are 44-17 on the season after going 18-12 in the SEC. They rolled through their Regional last weekend with 3 quick wins to boost their home record to 27-9 on the season (.750). Overall they are 6-4 over their last 10 games played.

Some History

Looking at my ever handy Aggie media guide I found that these two teams have not met up since 1995. Their first meeting was in 1910 and since then the Ags are 15-10-1 against the Tigers. It is interesting to turn around and read in the 2003 LSU media guide that our first meeting was in 1907 and we're really 11-8-1 v. the Tigers in 20 games. It goes on to show the results of our games:
1907 A&M  3 v. LSU 2 (@LSU)
1910 A&M  2 v. LSU 0 (@LSU)
     A&M  6 v. LSU 1 (@LSU)
1913 A&M 11 v. LSU 9 (@A&M)
1916 A&M  1 v. LSU 0 (@A&M)
     A&M  6 v. LSU 3 (@A&M)
1917 A&M  3 v. LSU 3 (@LSU)
     A&M  6 v. LSU 3 (@A&M)
1977 A&M 15 v. LSU 0 (@LSU)
     A&M  2 v. LSU 1 (@LSU)
     LSU  9 v. A&M 2 (@LSU)
     LSU  4 v. A&M 2 (@LSU)
1978 A&M  4 v. LSU 3 (@LSU)
     A&M  5 v. LSU 4 (@LSU)
     A&M  6 v. LSU 2 (@LSU)
1989 LSU 13 v. A&M 5 (College Station Regional)
     LSU  5 v. A&M 4 (College Station Regional)
1990 A&M  4 v. LSU 2 (@A&M)
     A&M  5 v. LSU 2 (@A&M)
     LSU  5 v. A&M 2 (@A&M)
1991 A&M  3 v. LSU 1 (@LSU)
     LSU 13 v. A&M 8 (@LSU)
     LSU  5 v. A&M 0 (@LSU)
     LSU  7 v. A&M 1 (Baton Rouge Regional)
1993 LSU 13 v. A&M 8 (College World Series; Omaha, NE)
1995 LSU  7 v. A&M 6 (Winn-Dixie Showdown; N.O., LA)

I count that up as 15-10-1 in A&M's favor, which means both media guides are wrong in some aspect of it.

It is nice that regardless of which media guide you look at A&M holds the all-time series advantage but it's tough to forget that the Tigers have handed the Ags some of the most painful L's in school history.

In 1989 the Aggies rolled into the postseason ranked #1 for 11 weeks during that spring. With a season record of 58-5, it all came crashing down in a Sunday DHer as LSU beat A&M 13-5 in the opener and squeaked by 5-4 in the second game after 11 innings. One of the greatest teams in NCAA history were ousted without having a chance to play for the Championship in Omaha.

Four years later the Ags made it to the promised land only to find the LSU Tigers again who mounted a 13-8 come-from-behind victory sending the Ags into the loser's bracket as the Tigers went on to win their second of five national titles in a 10 year time span. The Ags led 8-6 after the 6th inning but gave up a run in the 7th and then fell apart allowing LSU to score 6 unanswered runs in the bottom of the 8th inning.

I suppose you could say that there is a little history between these two teams....

On a pretty insignificant note....while researching all that you just read, I found out that fellow Westfield High School Alum, Mike Sirotka, is also an LSU Tiger alum as he led the Tigers to their 1993 CWS Championship throwing 2 complete games during the CWS (he also pitched for the 1991 CWS Championship team). He broke the school record of career IP, with 372.0, and he tied the school record with 10 complete games, 8 of which came in his last 9 starts as a Tiger. His career CWS games looked like this:

  Date          IP H R ER SO/BB GSc
6/02/91 v. CSF 6.0 5 2  2  2/2   54 W
6/04/93 v. LBS 9.0 3 1  0  9/0   88 W
6/09/93 v. LBS 1.0 4 3  3  0/0    - L
6/11/93 v. LBS 9.0 9 5  2  8/6   57 W

3-1 record and a 2.52 ERA
No one other than me got anything out of that last paragraph, but it's my site and I wanted to include it.

Offense

LSU can flat out rake at the plate. As a team they hit .334 with a .513 SLG and a .401 OBP (if there was a player on the Ag roster with those exact stats they would rank #4 on the team in BA, #2 in SLG and #5 in OBP). Here are their offensive stats....
LSU Tigers Hitting (>15 AB)

Player              AVG GP-GS  AB  R   H HR XBH RBI SLG% BB SO  OB% SB-ATT   OPS  GPA
 1 J.C. Holt...... .396 61-61 255 69 101  5  26  48 .549 31 37 .467  20/91 1.016 .347
16 Jon Zeringue... .389 61-61 239 54  93 12  33  54 .636 26 35 .446   3/60 1.082 .360
 3 Blake Gill..... .344 58-56 218 39  75  5  20  40 .500 25 15 .407   3/75  .907 .308
43 Nick Stavinoha. .341 55-54 217 44  74  8  26  42 .539 15 27 .382   3/60  .921 .307
12 Ryan Patterson. .341 61-61 276 67  94 13  36  61 .572 14 41 .384   6/86  .956 .316
25 Will Harris.... .329 51-44 155 34  51  6  15  35 .503 21 29 .416   0/00  .919 .313
14 Matt Liuzza.... .326 56-56 215 35  70  9  23  45 .516 20 32 .383   0/00  .899 .301
21 Clay Harris.... .295 61-61 234 48  69  7  23  49 .466 33 26 .383  2/100  .849 .289
 7 Ivan Naccarata. .275 55-46 189 44  52  5  11  32 .386 27 28 .368   5/83  .754 .262
--------------
 9 Dustin Weaver.. .347 25-10  49  8  17  1   4  12 .469  3  3 .382   0/00  .851 .289
30 Bobby DiLiberto .333  13-1  18  4   6  3   4   8 .889  0  4 .333   0/00 1.222 .372
 2 Derek Hebert... .278 32-21  90 22  25  1   6   6 .367  6 18 .320  1/100  .687 .236
34 Matt Horwath... .246 26-17  57 11  14  1   5   9 .368 11 16 .411   0/00  .779 .277
Like I said, they're pretty good with the stick.

Outfielder, Jon Zeringue, is their main man, as the numbers show. He was named by USA Today to their 1st Team All-American team.

Pitching

Their pitching staff gets cut a bit of slack when they get an average of 8.05 runs/game but they're still very solid....
LSU Pitching (>10 IP)
Player               ERA  W-L-S  G/GS    IP   H  R ER BB SO HR OppBA 
13 Clay Dirks...... 3.35  8-2-1 16/13  80.2  79 40 30 17 66  5  .249
41 Nate Bumstead... 3.51 10-3-0 14/13  89.2  98 43 35 17 51 10  .275
35 Justin Meier.... 3.75  6-2-0 17/15 100.2 118 56 42 26 75  6  .294
46 Lane Mestepey... 3.80  6-3-0 18/12  85.1 102 41 36 25 40 11  .301 
33 Jason Determann. 4.02  5-4-1  18/5  65.0  62 31 29 14 42  7  .259
--------------  
27 Greg Smith...... 2.43  2-0-1  21/0  29.2  26  8  8 12 33  1  .226
29 Jordan Faircloth 2.50  3-3-3  24/0  54.0  49 16 15 10 38  2  .253
28 Michael Bonura.. 4.59  4-0-0  13/3  33.1  33 20 17 22 29  4  .254
As a team they are far from a push-over, but there doesn't appear to be a standout stud on the staff that will just throw lights out consistently....conversely there doesn't seem to be a guy on the staff that just comes out to clean up in messy games either. As indicated by their OppBA, they are hittable and by looking at their HRs allowed you can see that they have a tendency to give up the long ball.

Here is what each of their pitchers has done over their team's last 10 games (listed by # of IP):

Nate Bumstead, Sr, RHP, 6'2", 210 lbs
Date   IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/16  5.0 6 3  3   4/0 19 19  64  47
5/22  7.2 6 4  1   6/3 29 33      60
6/05  9.0 8 2  2   6/2 35 38 126  67

Lane Mestepey, Jr, LHP, 6'0", 195 lbs
Date   IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/21  9.0 10 7  6   5/1 33 35      45
6/06  7.0 12 3  3   2/0 30 33  96  43

Justin Meier, So, RHP, 6'0", 215 lbs
Date   IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/26  6.1 8 4  4   9/2 23 28      48
6/04  9.0 7 0  0   9/0 32 37 117  82

Jordan Faircloth, Jr, RHP, 6'3", 210 lbs
Date   IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/19  1.1  1 0  0   2/0  5  5  18   -
5/22  1.1  1 0  0   0/1  5  6       -
5/26  0.2  0 0  0   0/0  2  2       -
5/27  8.1  7 1  1   2/1 31 33      66
6/06  2.0  1 0  0   0/1  6  7  21   -

Jason Determann, So, LHP, 5'11", 175 lbs
Date   IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/23  4.1  4 2  2   3/1 15 17       -
5/26  3.0  1 1  1   3/1  9 11       -

Clay Dirks, RS-Fr, LHP, 6'4", 230 lbs
Date   IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/16  1.1  4 4  4   1/0  7  9  37   -
5/19  2.0  2 0  0   3/2  8 11  48   -
5/23  3.1  6 2  2   2/2 15 20      40

Michael Bonura, Fr, RHP, 6'2", 170 lbs
Date   IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/16  1.0  1 1  1   1/0  4  4  12   -
5/19  4.2  6 2  2   2/2 20 23  77  44

Greg Smith, So, LHP, 6'2", 190 lbs 
Date   IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
5/16  1.2  1 0  0   0/1  7  8  40   -
5/23  1.1  3 2  2   2/0  7  7       -

appearance during Regionals

LSU v. A&M Statistically

Let's look at a team comparison between the Tigers and #19 Texas A&M:
Hitting
      G   AB   R HR XBH  SB/%   BA  SLG  OBP
 LSU 61 2233 491 76 232 43/78 .334 .513 .401 
TAMU 62 2139 447 41 177 52/68 .303 .434 .384

Pitching
      G    IP   H   R  ER HR   SO/BB  ERA
 LSU 61 546.1 577 261 217 46 381/148 3.57
TAMU 62 545.1 528 278 239 26 481/207 3.94 

LSU in Regionals

In the Regionals LSU pretty much just rolled their competition (outscored'em 26-5 on the weekend). Those runs, however, were split up like this:

6/04 v. Army; W 9-0
6/05 v. Southern Mississippi; W 6-2
6/06 v. College of Charleson W 11-3 
Southern Mississippi was really their only competition but LSU handled them pretty well.

Their players took 8 of the 12 spots on the Baton Rouge All-Regional team (P J.Meier, P N.Bumstead, C M.Liuzza, 1B W.Harris, SS B.Gill, OF J.Holt, OF J.Zeringue, & DH N.Stavinoha) including the Most Outstanding Player (Gill).

Common Opponents

The only three teams that both LSU and A&M have played are Texas State and U. of Houston & Arkansas.

LSU played a 3 game series v. TxSt from Feb. 27th-29th at "The Box" and swept them 10-1, 2-1, & 13-2.

Here are the pitching performances during that series for LSU:

Friday 2/27
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
J.Meier ..... 7.1 4 1  1   2/2 27 30 101  66
J.Faircloth.. 1.2 2 0  0   2/1  7  8  26   -

Saturday 2/28
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
L.Mestepey... 6.2 7 1  1   3/1 26 28 102  58
J.Determann.. 2.1 1 0  0   2/1  8  9  38   -

Sunday 2/29
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
N.Bumstead... 6.0 4 2  2   3/1 22 24  85  58
G.Smith...... 2.0 3 0  0   1/0  9  9  31   -
C.Smith...... 1.0 0 0  0   2/1  3  4  19   -
LSU played Houston the following weekend at home (March 5th-7th) and went 2-1 against them (W 9-3, L 10-5, W 8-2).

Here are their pitching performances during those games:

Friday 3/05
               IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
J.Meier...... 7.1 10 2  2   4/1 31 33 119  53
J.Determann.. 0.2  0 0  0   0/0  1  1   4   -
W.Harris..... 1.0  2 1  1   0/2  5  7  38   -

Saturday 3/06
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
L.Mestepey... 3.2 9 6  4   4/0 21 21  64  27
M.Bonura..... 2.2 3 3  1   3/4 12 16  68   -
G.Smith...... 2.1 2 1  1   3/0  9 10  29   -
J.Faircloth.. 0.1 0 0  0   0/0  0  0   5   -

Sunday 3/07
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
N.Bumstead... 8.1 9 2  2   7/2 31 33 119  62
J.Determann.. 0.2 1 0  0   0/0  2  3  14   -
Arkansas had LSU's number this year, sweeping the series AT "The Box" April 9th-11th (11-8, 11-10 (10), 7-5).

LSU's pitching staff produced the following stats:

Friday 4/09
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
J.Meier...... 1.1 6 7  6   0/1 10 12      15
J.Faircloth.. 5.0 7 3  2   2/1 22 24       -
L.Mestepey... 2.2 1 1  1   2/1  9 10       -

Saturday 4/10
               IP H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
C.Dirks...... 4.0 7 6  5   3/0 20 21  81  29
J.Determann.. 5.1 6 3  1   2/2 21 24  77   -
G.Smith...... 0.2 1 2  2   0/3  4  7  29   -

Sunday 4/11
               IP  H R ER SO/BB AB BF  NP GSc
N.Bumstead... 7.2 12 7  6   2/1 35 36 128  30
G.Smith...... 1.1  1 0  0   2/0  5  5  18   -

Drafted

Just incase you're wondering....
LSU
    Player Pos Round Overall    Team
J.Zeringue  OF   2nd    56   Arizona
J.Holt      2B   3rd   101   Atlanta
N.Bumstead RHP  32nd   943   Detroit
B.Gill      2B  37th  1097   Cleveland

Texas A&M
    Player  Pos Round Overall    Team
Z.Jackson   LHP   1-S    32   Toronto
C.Patton     OF   6th   177   Toronto
J.Ruggiano   OF  25th   748   L.A.
E.Shindewolf 2B  26th   776   Arizona
Get Rowdy in Louisiana for me Ags! B.T.H.O. LSU! WHOOP!

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